Tariffs are back in the news—and with them, the usual wave of concern. Questions about inflation, global trade, and economic growth are once again front and center. But for long-term investors, the more pressing question is this: Should any of this change your plan?

The short answer? Probably not.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, often used as tools of economic strategy or political leverage. While they intend to boost domestic industries, the ripple effects can be unpredictable—impacting consumer prices, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment.

As Jeremy Sorci, CFP®, Principal and Wealth Advisor at Premier Financial, explains: “Tariffs are often positioned as a quick fix or political talking point. But their actual impact on portfolios tends to be much more nuanced—and usually overstated.”

That’s especially true when viewed through the lens of long-term investing.

The Problem with Predictions

Much of the anxiety around tariffs stems not from what they are, but from what they might lead to: inflation, reduced profits, or even stagflation—a scenario where prices rise while economic growth slows.

These are serious concerns, but they aren’t new. And they don’t justify a knee-jerk reaction.

A study by Dimensional Fund Advisors notes that the U.S. experienced 12 years between 1930 and 2024 in which GDP shrank and inflation rose. Surprisingly, in nine of those years, the stock market still delivered positive real returns—proving that markets can be more resilient than they appear​.

Or as Jeremy puts it: “It’s a little like changing your travel plans after the plane has already landed. By the time a tariff policy is announced or implemented, the market has usually priced it in.”

Markets Move Fast—And They Move Ahead

When tariffs dominated headlines during the U.S.–China trade tensions of 2018–2019, many investors expected emerging markets—especially China—to suffer. Yet both U.S. and Chinese equity markets outperformed global peers during that period​.

The takeaway: headlines don’t always predict outcomes. And reactionary moves can be costly. “We tell our clients that a strong financial plan is designed to hold up across economic cycles,” says Jeremy. “It’s not about avoiding turbulence—it’s about being prepared for it.”

Staying Grounded in What Matters

At Premier Financial, we believe the antidote to uncertainty isn’t prediction—it’s planning. Tariffs might change the short-term environment, but they don’t change the fundamentals of long-term success: diversification, cost efficiency, and staying invested.

“When markets get noisy, it’s tempting to act,” Jeremy notes. “But more often than not, the best action is sticking to a well-built strategy.”

That’s where we focus our energy: on what can be controlled. Asset allocation. Tax efficiency. Investment costs. And helping clients make decisions aligned with their goals, not the news cycle.

Final Thought

Tariffs will continue to rise and fall in political and economic discourse. But long-term investors don’t need to guess where they’re going.

Instead, they can rely on a thoughtful, disciplined approach—and a team that helps them filter the signal from the noise.

At Premier Financial, we’re here to help you stay focused on what matters most: your goals, your values, and your financial peace of mind.